Year: 2021 | Month: December | Volume 11 | Issue 6
Prediction of Future Milk Production Trend in India and Central Punjab
Aatralarasi S.
L.K. Dhaliwal
P.K. Kingra
Gourav Jain
DOI:10.30954/2277-940X.06.2021.15
Abstract:
Livestock is an important source of livelihood for small and marginal farmers of India. Indian cattle require an ideal combination of environmental conditions with temperature less than 23°C and humidity of 68 per cent for the best milk production. However, due to climatic variations, ‘thermo-regulatory’ system of livestock has disturbed, which leads to decrease in milk production. Keeping this in view, the data of milk production and yield of Ludhiana district (1993-2013) and for different states of India (2001-2018) was analyzed. The regression analysis indicated that during 2018-19 milk production and yield of Indian states was highly dependent on the population strength of cattle and buffalo. The analysis also indicated an increase in India’s total milk production in future mainly due to increase in cattle and buffalo population. But in the rising population scenario, this increase in livestock population does not seem to be sustainable due to land degradation and climate change induced weather unsuitability. Hence, intensification of production is a vital step to sustain milk supply for increasing population. The milk productivity for Ludhiana has been projected to be the lowest in 2040-41 and the highest in 2080-81 due to warming in future and then reduction in temperature at the end of the century (2094-95), the milk yield will be low as compared to the present time scenario. So, to increase the national milk yield, mitigation and adaptation strategies viz. construction of climate-resilient sheds, diversified farming, installing sprinklers etc. should be adopted to combat the effects of climate change.
Highlights
- Prediction of milk production trends in future.
- Regression models were developed for estimating milk production in future years using the average monthly temperature.
- In this climate change scenario, different mitigation techniques can elevate the milk yield.
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